Masahiro Tanaka has finally been posted by his team from the NPBL (Golden Lions). Mark my words, with the exception of a crazy bid coming from the Dodgers way out West, no one will outbid the Yankees for this guys services. Based on his age and wherewithal, the Pinstripers can alter their immediate future by landing the 25 Year Old Japanese Phenom. If they spend the $125 MIL – $140 MIL for a 6 or 7 year total ($20 MIL post, plus player contract, look for them to blow their $189 MIL budget out of control in 2014, – and opt to reset in 2015 instead.) Tanaka was 24 – 0 – with a miniscule 1.27 ERA in 2013.
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Since nothing has changed since last week, I have two bets for you to take – and one for you to avoid.
As I mentioned last Saturday, the Rangers have confirmed on the Shin-Soo Choo signing. In my expert opinion this should have moved the line on Texas.
Instead, they are still the 3rd favorite to win the World Series coming out of the AL.
This is not right. Maybe I could see the Tigers still ahead of them based on the Division they are in, but the Red Sox have no business being ahead of them.
The Best Of Masahiro Tanaka
While the team has made smart Free Agent decisions, this club is fighting off father time, and a tough AL East Division in their own right for 2014. Stay away from their odd at +1000 for the World Series. If you want to bet this club to win, wait until March – when Free Agency is done. Maybe the Yankees and Rangers will help dip their odd back to a respectable value.
Boston needing everything to go right for them in 2013 – to escape the AL East. While I give them full credit for doing so, repeating that act in another campaign will be hard.
You are hoping David Ortiz does not age – and can play a full season. Boston also lost Jacoby Ellsbury to the Yankees. I don’t think enough is being said about how valuable he was to the Beantowners in 2013.
Let us all not forget the Red Sox only win 69 games in 2012. Now a lot of that was due to pitching, however Ellsbury and Ortiz were both hurt for the greater portion of the 2nd half.
I am not sold on John Lackey being as good as he was in 2013 either.
I think Jon Lester will perform well in a contract year, however how about trying to keep the frail Clay Buchholz on the hill for 25 starts in 2014?
The club is not as strong at SS heading into next season yet. This could be eradicated by re-signing Stephen Drew sure, but they might not see the kind of production they mustered out of the 3B position either.
Jose Iglesias hit nearly 60 PTS ahead of his Career Avg, and when Will Middlebrooks returned, he hit the ball like he did at the 1st part of the 2012 year.
This brings me to the biggest news of this week that should influence the odds in going forward.
The offseason couldn’t be going much better for the Yankees. Tanaka being posted is a blessing. This club will likely blow its budget for 2014, however they can still reset in 2015, and have a Starting Pitcher like Tanaka anchor their rotation for the next 7 years. If he inks a deal with the Bronx Bombers, they will be back in the AL East conversion for a title next year. You may not like it, but this could end up happening.
The Yankees are going to land Masahiro Tanaka.
When they accomplish this, it makes sticking under the $189 MIL Threshold almost impossible for 2014, so watch them than obliterate this total by spending 2013 like $.
Yes, that is right. Once New York lands the Golden Lions player, this will set forth a fury of other actions the club can do for next season.
Whether it is spending more cash once the Alex Rodriguez situation is resolved, or the team piggy backs onto the Trade Deadline, they will amp up their roster feverishly in a last gasp attempt for a World Series Title.
Now the club will still try to reset the mark of their spending penalty in 2015, but they can easily take on a bunch of players in salary dumps from other teams – that are in the last years of contracts.
Don’t be surprised to see a player like Adam Dunn, Kyle Kendrick, Jorge De La Rosa or Chase Headley picked up half way through the year to bolster the Bronx Bombers Starting Pitching, DH slot – or 3B spot.
I am not saying Tanaka will vault the New York Yanks into the upper stratosphere, yet they will surely move up to the above the A’s and Braves in the odds list.
Odds To Win The 2014 World Series
1. LA Dodgers +700
2. Washington Nationals +800
3. Detroit Tigers +900
T4. St. Louis Cardinals +1000
T4. Boston Red Sox +1000
6. Texas Rangers +1100
T7. Oakland Athletics +1400
T7. Atlanta Braves +1400
T9. New York Yankees +1500
T9. LA Angels +1500
T9. Cincinnati Reds +1500
T12. Tampa Bay Rays +1800
T12. Toronto Blue Jays +1800
14. Kansas City Royals +2200
15. Cleveland Indians +2300
T16. San Francisco Giants +2500
T16. Pittsburgh Pirates +2500
T16. Baltimore Orioles +2500
T19. Arizona Diamondbacks +3300
T19. Seattle Mariners +3300
21. Philadelphia Phillies +3500
22. Milwaukee Brewers +4000
23. Chicago White Sox +4500
T24. Chicago Cubs +5500
T24. Colorado Rockies +5500
26. San Diego Padres +6600
27. Minnesota Twins +8000
28. New York Mets +8000
29. Miami Marlins +10000
30. Houston Astros +25000
The Rangers have cobbled together 370 wins over the last four years – including 4 straight 90 win campaigns. They have since added Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and have a multitude of players they could trade to acquire another teams ace via trade. Look for them to also be active in the Tanaka bidding. This team has the resources, and has one of the better Divisions to play in right now for competition. While the A’s have back to back AL West Titles, they could be had. I also don’t like the Mariners offense. The Angels are one of the worst run franchises in the Majors for the last few years, and Houston is still rebuilding. They have no business being placed 3rd for the AL in odds right now. I think if they made the playoffs – they will be favored to win the AL Pennant. It is only the Tigers weaker Division in the Central – that places them above Texas as the AL Favorite currently.
Odds courtesy of www.bet365.com
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